Should You Buy a Home Now or Wait Until 2027? Canada Housing Market Outlook for Buyers

Quick Answer

For financially prepared buyers, 2026 could offer a better opportunity to buy a home than waiting until 2027 — but the answer depends heavily on your local market, mortgage affordability, and how long you plan to own the property.

Canada’s housing market is not expected to experience the same conditions everywhere. Some markets may continue offering buyers more inventory and negotiating power, while others could see stronger demand and modest price growth.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts the national average home price to rise 1.5% in 2026 to $688,955, followed by another 0.9% increase in 2027 to $695,094.

Meanwhile, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) expects resale activity to improve in 2026 as some buyers enter the market ahead of potentially higher mortgage rates in 2027.

The bottom line?

Waiting until 2027 does not guarantee cheaper homes or lower mortgage payments.

For many buyers, the better question is not “Will the housing market fall?”

It is:

“Can I comfortably afford the right home today, and am I financially prepared to own it for several years?”

Key Takeaways

Canada’s national average home price is currently forecast to increase modestly in both 2026 and 2027.
Waiting until 2027 does not guarantee lower home prices.
CMHC expects resale activity to improve in 2026 as some buyers act ahead of potentially higher mortgage rates in 2027.
Buyers in slower markets may have greater negotiating power in 2026.
Canada is not one housing market — conditions can vary dramatically between provinces, cities, and even neighbourhoods.
Buying now may make sense for financially prepared long-term buyers.
Waiting may be smarter if buying today would leave you financially stretched.
The best home-buying decision should be based on affordability and personal circumstances rather than trying to perfectly predict the market bottom.

Twikup Insight

The biggest mistake Canadian homebuyers can make in 2026 may be waiting for a “perfect” housing market that never arrives.

A home could become cheaper while mortgage rates rise.

Mortgage rates could fall while buyer competition increases.

Prices could remain relatively flat while your income, rent, family situation, or borrowing capacity changes.

That is why buyers should think about three markets at the same time:

The Canadian housing market.
Their local real estate market.
Their personal financial situation.

The third one may ultimately matter the most.

Canada’s Housing Market Is Entering a Complicated Period

Anyone hoping for a simple answer about where Canadian home prices are heading may be disappointed.

The current outlook is neither a straightforward housing boom nor a nationwide crash.

Instead, Canada appears to be moving through a period of regional divergence, affordability pressure, changing mortgage conditions, and cautious buyer demand.

According to CREA’s latest quarterly forecast, the national average home price is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2026 to $688,955.

For 2027, CREA forecasts another 0.9% increase to $695,094.

National home sales are also forecast to increase further in 2027.

These projections suggest something important for buyers:

The current baseline forecast does not point toward a dramatic nationwide housing crash before 2027.

However, national averages can hide significant differences between individual markets.

British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario are expected to see virtually no average price growth in 2026 under CREA’s forecast, while several other provinces could experience stronger gains.

That means the decision to buy or wait should increasingly depend on where you plan to purchase.

For a deeper examination of where Canadian home prices could be heading over the next several years, read our analysis:

Canada Real Estate Price Prediction 2026–2031: Will Home Prices Rise or Fall in the Next 5 Years?

What Is Happening in Canada’s Housing Market Right Now?

Canada’s housing market entered the summer of 2026 in relatively balanced national conditions.

According to CREA, there were just over 200,000 properties listed for sale across Canadian MLS systems at the end of May 2026.

Nationally, there were 4.8 months of inventory, close to the long-term average of five months.

CREA considers markets with fewer than 3.6 months of inventory to generally favour sellers, while markets with more than 6.4 months of inventory tend to favour buyers.

This means Canada’s national housing market was neither strongly favouring buyers nor sellers.

But once again, the national number does not tell the complete story.

Some markets have considerably more inventory.

Others remain competitive.

Some condo markets are struggling with elevated supply.

Other regions continue experiencing affordability pressures and limited housing availability.

For buyers, this creates something that was difficult to find during the pandemic housing boom:

choice.

And choice can create negotiating power.

Why Buying a Home in 2026 Could Make Sense

There are several reasons financially prepared buyers may want to consider purchasing in 2026 instead of automatically waiting until 2027.

1. You May Have More Negotiating Power

One of the biggest advantages of buying in a slower housing market is flexibility.

During extremely competitive markets, buyers may feel pressured to:

submit offers quickly;
compete against multiple bidders;
increase their purchase price;
accept inconvenient closing dates; or
make decisions before fully evaluating the property.

A more balanced market can give buyers additional time to compare properties and negotiate.

Depending on local conditions, buyers may be able to negotiate:

the purchase price;
closing dates;
home inspection conditions;
financing conditions;
repairs; and
included appliances or other items.

For a buyer planning to own a home for many years, purchasing the right property at a reasonable price can matter more than perfectly predicting the lowest point of the market.

2. Waiting Until 2027 Does Not Guarantee Lower Prices

This is perhaps the most important point for buyers.

Many Canadians considering waiting until 2027 may be assuming one of two things:

Home prices will fall.

Or:

Mortgage rates will become significantly cheaper.

Neither outcome is guaranteed.

CREA’s current forecast actually expects the national average home price to increase modestly in both 2026 and 2027.

The organization forecasts prices rising 1.5% in 2026 and another 0.9% in 2027.

Of course, forecasts can change.

Economic conditions, inflation, employment, mortgage rates, housing supply, and government policies could all affect future market performance.

But based on the current outlook, buyers should not automatically assume that waiting another year will produce substantially cheaper homes.

3. More Buyers Could Return to the Market

Housing demand can change quickly.

Some potential buyers have spent the last several years waiting because of:

high mortgage rates;
economic uncertainty;
affordability concerns;
expectations of falling home prices; and
uncertainty about employment.

If economic confidence improves, more buyers could eventually return.

CMHC expects resale activity to pick up in 2026 as buyers act ahead of potentially higher mortgage rates in 2027.

Meanwhile, CREA currently forecasts national home sales to increase another 2.1% in 2027.

More buyers entering the market does not automatically mean dramatically higher prices.

However, it could mean greater competition for desirable properties.

Why Waiting Until 2027 Could Still Be the Better Decision

Buying in 2026 will not make sense for everyone.

In fact, for some potential buyers, waiting could be the financially stronger decision.

1. You Need More Time to Build Your Down Payment

A larger down payment can significantly improve your financial position.

Waiting another year could allow you to:

increase your savings;
reduce the size of your mortgage;
improve your emergency fund;
pay down other debt; and
prepare for closing and moving costs.

The housing market may receive most of the attention, but improving your personal finances can sometimes have a greater impact than a small movement in home prices.

2. Buying Today Would Leave You House Poor

Being approved for a mortgage does not necessarily mean the mortgage is comfortable.

Homeownership expenses can include:

mortgage payments;
property taxes;
home insurance;
utilities;
maintenance;
repairs;
condo fees, where applicable; and
unexpected expenses.

If buying a home would consume nearly all of your monthly income and savings, waiting may be the more responsible decision.

3. Your Employment or Life Situation Is Uncertain

Buying a home involves significant transaction costs.

That means purchasing may be riskier for people expecting major changes involving:

employment;
relocation;
relationships;
family size; or
financial circumstances.

Someone who may need to sell again within one or two years faces a very different decision than someone planning to own the property for a decade.

The Mortgage Rate Question: Should You Wait for Lower Rates?

This may be the biggest question facing Canadian buyers.

Should you buy now?

Or wait for mortgage rates to fall?

Unfortunately, there is no guaranteed answer.

Mortgage rates depend on several factors, including inflation, economic conditions, government bond yields, lender competition, and Bank of Canada policy.

CMHC’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook expects resale activity to increase as some buyers act before potentially higher mortgage rates in 2027.

This is particularly important because many buyers assume waiting automatically means receiving a cheaper mortgage.

That assumption could prove incorrect.

For our detailed analysis of where Canadian borrowing costs could be heading, read:

Canada Mortgage Rate Prediction 2026–2030: Will Rates Fall Again—or Is 4% the New Normal?

What Happens If Home Prices Fall but Mortgage Rates Rise?

Consider a hypothetical example.

A buyer is considering a $700,000 home.

They decide to wait because they believe prices will fall.

A year later, the property costs $675,000.

That appears to be good news.

But what happens if borrowing costs have increased?

Depending on the down payment, mortgage term, amortization, and available rate, the buyer’s monthly payment could still be similar — or potentially higher.

This demonstrates why buyers should avoid looking exclusively at home prices.

The true cost of buying a home includes:

Purchase price + mortgage cost + ownership expenses + transaction costs.

A cheaper home does not automatically mean cheaper homeownership.

What Happens If Mortgage Rates Fall?

Now consider the opposite scenario.

Mortgage rates decline.

More buyers qualify for mortgages.

Consumer confidence improves.

People who have been waiting enter the market.

Suddenly, attractive properties receive more offers.

Sellers become less willing to negotiate.

Prices begin rising in certain markets.

The buyer receives a better mortgage rate — but pays more for the property.

Again, there is no perfect outcome.

Housing markets constantly adjust to changing economic conditions.

Buy Now vs. Wait Until 2027: Buyer Comparison

Your Situation	Buying in 2026	Waiting Until 2027
Strong down payment	Could make sense	May increase savings further
Comfortable monthly budget	Could make sense	Optional
Buying for 5–10+ years	More favourable	Timing becomes less important
Unstable employment	Higher risk	May be smarter
No emergency fund	Not recommended	Better opportunity to prepare
Local market has high inventory	Potential negotiating opportunity	Conditions could change
Expecting a major price crash	Current forecasts do not support this nationally	Still possible locally
Need significantly lower rates to afford the home	Financially risky	Waiting may be smarter
Planning to move soon	Higher transaction risk	Consider waiting
Found the right home at a comfortable price	Buying may make sense	Risk losing the property

The Most Important Factor: Your City

Perhaps the biggest mistake buyers can make is treating Canada as one housing market.

It is not.

A buyer in Toronto faces different conditions from someone purchasing in:

Calgary;
Edmonton;
Vancouver;
Ottawa;
Montréal;
Winnipeg;
Halifax;
Saskatoon; or
smaller Canadian communities.

Housing inventory, employment growth, population trends, construction activity, and affordability vary significantly across the country.

That is why national housing predictions should be treated as a starting point — not a personal buying recommendation.

For a detailed regional breakdown, read:

Canada Housing Market by City 2026–2031: Price Predictions for Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal and More

What About Canada’s Housing Supply?

Housing supply remains another major factor affecting the long-term outlook.

CMHC reported that Canadian housing starts increased 6% in 2025, helped by record rental construction and growing missing-middle housing development.

However, CMHC also identified significant risks beneath the headline numbers.

Condominium presales weakened substantially, unsold inventory increased, and tighter financial conditions created concerns about the future pipeline of ownership-oriented housing — particularly in Toronto and Vancouver.

More recent CMHC data showed the six-month housing-start trend was relatively flat in May 2026.

Actual housing starts were down 5.2% year-over-year in Canadian centres with populations above 10,000, although year-to-date starts remained 3% higher than during the same period in 2025.

This creates an interesting long-term challenge.

Canada needs more housing.

But difficult development conditions can discourage future construction.

If housing demand eventually strengthens while the supply pipeline weakens, affordability pressures could return.

The Biggest Mistake Buyers Can Make in 2026

Trying to perfectly time the housing market.

Imagine waiting for all of the following conditions:

significantly lower home prices;
significantly lower mortgage rates;
high housing inventory;
strong employment;
low competition; and
complete economic certainty.

That combination may never happen.

Usually, one advantage comes with another disadvantage.

Lower rates can increase demand.

Lower prices may accompany economic weakness.

More inventory may exist because buyers are nervous.

Strong economic conditions can increase competition.

The goal should not be finding the perfect housing market.

The goal should be making a financially sustainable decision.

7 Questions to Ask Before Buying a Home in 2026

1. Can I comfortably afford the monthly payment?

Comfortably is the important word.

You should still have room for savings, emergencies, and everyday life.

2. Would I be financially okay if mortgage rates changed?

Your budget should not depend entirely on receiving significantly lower rates in the future.

3. Do I have money left after the down payment?

Homeownership can produce unexpected expenses.

Draining your entire savings account to purchase a property can leave you financially vulnerable.

4. How long do I plan to own the home?

Longer ownership periods can provide more time to absorb temporary market fluctuations.

5. What is happening in my local market?

Look beyond national headlines.

Study local inventory, recent sales, price trends, and comparable properties.

6. Am I buying because I am ready — or because I am afraid?

Fear of missing out can lead to expensive decisions.

So can excessive fear of a market crash.

7. Would I still be comfortable owning the home if its value temporarily declined?

Home prices do not move upward every year.

Buyers should be financially and emotionally prepared for market fluctuations.

Who Should Consider Buying in 2026?

Buying this year may make sense for people who:

have stable employment;
have a sufficient down payment;
maintain an emergency fund after closing;
can comfortably afford the mortgage;
understand their local market;
have found a suitable property;
plan to own the home for several years; and
are not relying on rapidly rising home prices.

For these buyers, 2026 could offer opportunities — particularly in markets where higher inventory creates negotiating power.

Who Should Consider Waiting Until 2027?

Waiting may be smarter for buyers who:

need more time to save;
have significant consumer debt;
are uncertain about employment;
expect to relocate;
would struggle with current mortgage payments;
have no emergency fund;
are unsure about the type of property they need; or
are buying primarily because of fear of missing out.

Waiting should not be viewed as “losing” the housing market.

Sometimes the strongest financial decision is simply becoming better prepared.

So, Should You Buy a Home Now or Wait Until 2027?

Based on the current outlook, there is no strong evidence that every Canadian buyer should automatically wait until 2027.

CREA currently forecasts modest national price growth in both 2026 and 2027.

CMHC expects resale activity to improve in 2026 as some buyers act before potentially higher mortgage rates in 2027.

At the same time, Canada’s housing market remains highly regional.

This means both decisions can be reasonable.

Buying in 2026 may make sense if you are financially prepared, find the right property, receive a reasonable price, and plan to own the home for several years.

Waiting until 2027 may make sense if buying today would stretch your finances, eliminate your savings, or force you to depend on future rate cuts.

Final Verdict

For Canadian homebuyers, 2026 may be best described as a selective buying opportunity.

It is not necessarily a market where everyone should rush to buy.

But it may also be risky to assume that waiting until 2027 will automatically produce lower home prices, cheaper mortgages, and better affordability.

The current outlook suggests modest national price growth rather than a dramatic nationwide crash.

Some local markets may favour buyers.

Others may remain competitive.

Mortgage conditions could change.

Economic forecasts could be revised.

That is why the smartest question is not:

“Is 2026 or 2027 the perfect year to buy?”

It is:

“Can I comfortably afford the right home, in the right market, without depending on predictions to make the numbers work?”

If the answer is yes, buying in 2026 could make sense.

If the answer is no, waiting until 2027 — or longer — may be the stronger financial decision.

Sources

Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). “Quarterly Forecasts — Canadian Housing Market.” CREA’s latest housing market forecast provides projections for national home sales and average home prices in 2026 and 2027. https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/canadian-housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/
Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). “Canadian Home Sales Activity and Housing Market Statistics.” Used for current national home sales, listings, price movements, and housing market activity data. https://stats.crea.ca/en-ca/
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Housing Market Outlook 2026.” Used for Canada’s economic outlook, housing demand expectations, regional market differences, and future housing market conditions. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/what-ahead-canada-housing-market-2026
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report.” Used for analysis of housing construction, rental supply, condominium development, inventories, and potential future housing supply pressures. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data Tables.” Used for the latest available Canadian housing starts and residential construction data. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/housing-market-data/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables

Sources were accessed in July 2026. Housing market forecasts and economic projections are subject to revision as new data becomes available.

Disclaimer

This article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, mortgage, investment, legal, tax, or real estate advice, and it should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any property or financial product.

Housing markets, mortgage rates, government policies, economic conditions, and individual financial circumstances can change. Forecasts and projections are inherently uncertain and may differ from actual future outcomes.

Before making a home-buying, mortgage, investment, or other financial decision, consider consulting an appropriately qualified professional who can assess your individual circumstances.